Current Market Trend
Alaska pollock raw material prices have moved aggressively since early 2026, with the sharpest increase coming immediately after Chinese New Year. Prices have climbed from around USD 1,640/mt to USD 2,200/mt by week 14, with continued upward pressure since then.
What stands out is not just the level, but the speed of the increase. In the past week alone, raw material moved from USD 2,050/mt to USD 2,200/mt, confirming a market that is still accelerating rather than stabilizing.
This has created a difficult position for Chinese processors. Many are reluctant to commit to large purchases at current levels, as prices continue to rise on a near-weekly basis. At the same time, they are still buying to cover existing orders, which is feeding further upward pressure.
The result is a market driven not only by fundamentals, but also by short-term positioning and speculation.
The chart shows a cyclical market, but the latest move is clearly above the historical range and confirms that the recent rally is more than just a normal seasonal rebound.
Most common EU specification
Alaska pollock fillets (Theragra chalcogramma), IQF, skinless, boneless, PBO, chemical-free, 2–8 oz, bulk 10 kg/ctn, 100% net weight.
At today’s market, this product is generally being discussed around USD 4,300–4,500/mt FOB, depending on origin, plant position, and timing.
China’s re-frozen pollock has become a much more important price reference this year because both Russian and U.S. primary frozen PBO supply have been tied up early, leaving European buyers with fewer realistic alternatives.
Cost Drivers
Supply
Slower catches in some Russian fisheries and reduced quota in the Gulf of Alaska have limited available raw material, especially for blocks and PBO production. Recent reporting has described Russian catch volumes down by roughly 12%–20% year-on-year
Demand
Cod and haddock remain expensive, which is pushing processors, retailers, and foodservice buyers further down the whitefish ladder. Cod prices rose by around 20% in 2025, and buyers are increasingly shifting into alternative species like pollock
Market Sentiment
Chinese buyers are not only buying because they are bullish; many are buying because they already have sales commitments to cover. This is classic passive restocking: factories keep purchasing H&G not because they like the price, but because they cannot afford to be short.
Freight and Logistics
Before Chinese New Year, a 40' reefer from Dalian to Rotterdam was around USD 2,200, while current indications are closer to USD 3,500, implying a 50%+ increase in a matter of weeks.
Inland transportation in Europe has also increased by around 13%, further compressing margins for importers.
East Asia to West Europe corridor rates per lane week 14.
FX
FX is still offering some support to European buyers, but less than it was at the start of the year. After strengthening sharply and briefly touching the 1.20 level in late January, the euro has lost momentum against the dollar and is now moving in the 1.15–1.16 range.
Packaging
Packaging is still a secondary issue compared with raw material, but it is not irrelevant. Limited availability of PE/PA bags in some processing hubs is slowing certain orders and putting extra pressure on lead times and packaging costs.
After a steady climb through mid-2025 and a peak at nearly 1.20 in early 2026, the series has softened slightly but remains elevated and relatively stable around ~1.15, suggesting consolidation.
Our view remains firm.
With the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East, elevated freight and fuel costs, and continued strength in Alaska pollock raw material, we believe the market still has upward risk in the near term. Orders are not slowing down enough to cool the market, and most importers have already accepted that replacement costs are higher than they were just a few months ago.
At the same time, there is caution in the market. Many processors are reluctant to quote too far forward, especially beyond July, because they know that once the market moves this fast, it can also correct fast if catches improve or buying pauses.
For long-term contracts in H2, the most sensible strategy is still to cover part of your needs now and leave some room in case the market normalizes later.
Historically, Alaska pollock prices tend to hit seasonal lows around Chinese New Year and gradually strengthen toward year-end.
Interesting Market Notes
1 | We are already hearing that some importers are moving into 91–92% moisture specs to bring down the total cost of the product. That tells you the market is no longer just debating price; it is also starting to adjust specification. |
2 | At the North Atlantic Seafood Forum (NASF) in Bergen in early March, Regal Springs served approximately 70 kg of farmed tilapia at the gala dinner as a substitute for cod. Several UK fish & chips operators noted that larger tilapia showed a high degree of similarity in taste and cooking performance compared to traditional whitefish. If cod and pollock remain elevated for a prolonged period, farmed whitefish could start playing a more meaningful role in some European applications. |
We’ll keep tracking how this develops in the coming weeks, but for now the market remains tight and reactive.
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