Current Market Trend
Tilapia raw material prices remain close to cycle lows, although we have seen some attempts from Chinese processors to push prices higher in recent weeks. After Chinese New Year, raw material prices recovered from the historical low of CNY 3.40/jin to around CNY 3.65/jin in week 15. With the U.S. dollar stronger against the renminbi, that translates into roughly USD 1.05/kg for whole round tilapia in Guangdong based on current FX levels. Hainan typically trades at around CNY 0.05/jin above Guangdong, with Guangxi broadly following the same pattern.
Global tilapia is entering Q2 2026 with mixed signals. On one side, importers in the United States are still buying conservatively, supported by existing inventories and a market that has not yet been forced into aggressive restocking. On the other side, raw material availability in China is no longer loose. In Guangdong, processor procurement has started to tighten supply, which helped lift farm-gate prices after the post-holiday bottom.
Still, some prices in Guangdong softened again in week 15 as processors tried to improve export competitiveness.
The market today feels stable, with no rush to buy, but a clear degree of caution across the chain.
Most common EU specification
Tilapia fillets (Oreochromis niloticus), IQF, skinless, boneless, 5–7 oz, treated, bulk 10 kg, 90% net weight.
At today’s market, this product is generally being discussed around USD 2.45 FOB, depending on origin, plant position, and timing.
Most common USA specification
Tilapia fillets (Oreochromis niloticus), IQF, skinless, boneless, 5–7 oz, treated, 1lb bag, 10 lb, 100% net weight.
At today’s market, this product is generally being discussed around USD 1.34/lb FOB, depending on origin, plant position, and timing.
Cost Drivers
Supply
Supply is no longer fully comfortable. Our market checks indicate hatcheries have reduced volumes by around 15% to 20%, which is now starting to show up in raw material availability.
Demand
Demand is not dead, but it is shifting.
Our records show the U.S. is back in the market, although still at a cautious pace. Europe, meanwhile, has increased purchasing volumes and is compensating for part of the slower U.S. pull.
Market Sentiment
Market sentiment remains cautious.
Buyers are not chasing the market, but neither are they expecting meaningful downside from current levels. Importers still have enough coverage to avoid aggressive forward buying, yet the market is increasingly aware that raw material cannot stay at these levels indefinitely.
Freight and Logistics
On the transpacific lane, a 40’ reefer from Shenzhen to Los Angeles was around USD 2,900 before the Iran War, while current indications are closer to USD 3,400, implying a 30%+ increase in a matter of weeks.
In Europe, we’ve seen a similar move. Shenzhen to Rotterdam went from around USD 2,600 to USD 3,400.
East Asia to North America West corridor rates per lane week 15.
East Asia to West Europe corridor rates per lane week 15.
FX
FX is still offering some support to European buyers, but less than it was at the start of the year. After strengthening sharply and briefly touching the 1.20 level in late January, the euro has lost momentum against the dollar and is now moving in the 1.15–1.16 range.
That is still a better level than much of last year for euro-based importers buying in U.S. dollars, but it is clearly less favourable than the January peak.
Packaging
Packaging is still a secondary issue compared with raw material, but it is not irrelevant. Limited availability of PE/PA bags in some processing hubs is slowing certain orders and putting extra pressure on lead times and packaging costs.
After a steady climb through mid-2025 and a peak at nearly 1.20 in early 2026, the series has softened slightly but remains elevated and relatively stable around ~1.15, suggesting consolidation.
Our view is constructive, but not aggressive.
Tilapia is not a runaway market today. Buyers remain cautious, inventories in some destination markets are limiting urgency, and finished-product prices have not broken out. However, the underlying supply picture in China is no longer loose.
If the typical seasonal pattern holds, we would expect prices to soften into summer and strengthen again from September onwards. That said, current market conditions are less predictable, with added uncertainty from geopolitical tensions and uneven inventory positions, making it difficult to define a clear “fair” price.
Our recommendation is to hold through April, and reassess long-term contract positions towards the end of May or early June.
Interesting Market Notes
1 | Tilapia is becoming a trade rerouting story. |
2 | Substitutes are in a significantly worse position. The broader whitefish complex remains under pressure. Alaska pollock is trading at record highs, while cod and haddock are holding near peak levels, with mackerel continuing to trend upwards week after week. Pangasius has started to normalize, but prices are still elevated. |
We’ll keep tracking how this develops in the coming weeks, but for now the market remains stable, cautious, and highly sensitive to any changes in supply or restocking behaviour.
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